About the economic viability of an independent Catalonia

By: Josep Navarro

Opinion of several Nobel Prizes in economics about the economic viability of an independent Catalonia

The independence of Catalonia can take place in a scenario of agreement with the Spanish State or of no agreement. In the first case, it is not foreseeable that the Catalan Government will have transitory financing problems due to the fact that it will have to assume the new competencies and services as a state, since there is also an assumption of goods and rights as a consequence of the distribution of assets between the Catalan and Spanish Governments.

However, if the scenario is one of disagreement, it is likely that in the first few months the tax administration of Catalonia was not yet in full swing and the Generalitat de Catalunya's budget would have to cover this transitory cash flow gap with other sources of financing. This is the most likely current scenario scenario.

Certainly, for some months there will be some problems. The essential thing, of course, is whether Catalonia's economic viability is likely in the medium and especially in the long term.

The voices that are heard today seem to be conditioned by current events. So, faced with the disasters that are predicted for the economy of Catalonia, we present below as a counterweight to reflect the opinion on this matter of various Nobel prize-winners in economics.

Finn Erling Kydland

The 2004 Nobel Prize in Economics states that he would not be surprised if Catalonia were independent, it would arouse more confidence in the markets than Spain.

Gary Stanley Becker.

The 1992 Nobel Prize winner in Economics argues that Catalonia's independence is economically viable. The separation of Catalonia from the rest of Spain would not be an economic disaster. Globalization and the opening up of international markets allow small states to maintain productive and profitable trade with the rest of the world

Joseph E. Stiglitz

The Nobel Prize in Economics states that Catalonia would be economically viable if it were independent, although its sovereignty would have "very important" political consequences throughout Europe. Iceland is the example of how a very small country can be viable outside the Euro even if it is within Europe. Catalonia is much bigger than Iceland, but it could follow its example, since the independence of Spain would mean the exit of the euro, having its own currency allows a rapid recovery of competitiveness and trade balance

James Mirrlees

The British Nobel Prize winner in Economics said that an independent Catalonia would be possible without the euro as its currency, although this would create problems "for a few months".

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